Source note: This analysis is based on the June 2026 NPR/PBS News/Marist poll and reporting from NPR, PBS News, the Marist Poll, The Associated Press and Reuters. Survey figures are attributed to Marist as fielded for NPR and PBS News. All numbers are drawn from published reporting; none are estimated or invented.

President Donald Trump's job approval has fallen to the lowest point of either of his terms, according to a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released in June 2026. The survey, conducted June 8 through June 11 among 1,340 adults with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.0 percentage points, found 36 percent of Americans approve of the way Trump is handling his job, while 59 percent disapprove. The disapproval figure ties the highest Marist has recorded for him. The poll arrives as the country turns toward the November 2026 midterm elections, the first nationwide test of voter sentiment since Trump returned to office.

The economy, long described by pollsters as one of Trump's stronger issues with voters, registered an even lower mark. Just 33 percent of respondents said they approve of his handling of the economy, against 60 percent who disapprove. Marist has described that as the lowest economic approval rating it has measured for Trump since it began asking the question, and reporting noted it sits below the weakest economic marks recorded for former President Joe Biden during his term. The shift was visible even within the president's own coalition: 22 percent of Republicans said they disapprove of his economic stewardship.

What the Poll Found

The headline numbers point to broad-based softening rather than movement confined to one group. Among independents, who often decide competitive elections, 64 percent disapproved of Trump's overall job performance and 65 percent disapproved of his handling of the economy. Disapproval among Democrats on the economy reached 93 percent. The combination of near-unanimous opposition from the other party, lopsided disapproval among independents, and visible erosion among Republicans is the pattern that produces a record low.

Cost-of-living pressure runs through the survey. Marist reported that roughly a third of Americans described gas prices as a major strain on their household budgets, with another 44 percent calling them a minor strain. Questions about summer plans reinforced the theme: a sizable share of those who said they would not take a vacation cited cost as the main reason. The poll's authors framed everyday prices, rather than any single political controversy, as the most consistent driver of the mood.

  • Overall approval: 36 percent approve, 59 percent disapprove.
  • Economic approval: 33 percent approve, 60 percent disapprove.
  • Republicans on the economy: 22 percent disapprove.
  • Independents: 64 percent disapprove overall; 65 percent on the economy.
  • Field details: 1,340 adults, June 8 to 11, 2026, margin of error plus or minus 3.0 points.

The Economic Backdrop

The poll lands amid a mixed economic picture. Reporting has centered on prices that consumers encounter directly, especially fuel and groceries, which remained elevated through the spring. Analysts following the data have pointed to tariff policy as one factor putting upward pressure on the cost of imported and import-dependent goods, even as some broader inflation measures cooled from their earlier peaks. The result is a gap that pollsters frequently observe: aggregate statistics can improve while households continue to feel squeezed at the register.

The Federal Reserve's posture forms part of that backdrop. The central bank has held interest rates at relatively high levels to keep inflation moving toward its 2 percent target, a stance that keeps borrowing costs up for mortgages, auto loans and credit cards. That tension, between a Fed wary of cutting too soon and consumers eager for relief, is a recurring feature of the current environment. Labor-market readings have been steadier by comparison, with hiring continuing at a slower pace than the post-pandemic surge but without the sharp deterioration that typically defines a recession.

It is worth stressing that the poll measures perception, not a verdict on policy outcomes. Respondents are reacting to prices they pay and conditions they observe, and those impressions can lag or lead the official data in either direction. NPR's reporting illustrated the range, quoting both former Trump voters who said promised improvements had not materialized and supporters who described strong local business activity. The survey captures a national average that contains considerable regional and individual variation.

What Low Approval Has Meant Historically

Midterm elections have followed a durable pattern. Since 1946, the president's party has lost House seats in 18 of 20 midterms, roughly 90 percent of the time. The exceptions were narrow and tied to unusual circumstances: 1934, 1998 and 2002. Approval ratings sharpen the picture. Gallup's long-running analysis has found that presidents with approval below 50 percent in the run-up to a midterm saw their party lose an average of about 37 House seats, compared with an average loss of roughly 14 seats for presidents above 50 percent.

That body of research is descriptive, not deterministic. Averages conceal wide variation, and each cycle carries its own map, candidates and events. A president sitting in the mid-30s has historically signaled headwinds for his party, but the precise translation into seats depends on which districts are contested, how the parties are positioned, turnout, redistricting and developments between summer and Election Day. Several analysts have also noted that a single poll, however well regarded, is one data point; aggregators tracking many surveys have placed Trump's approval somewhat higher than the Marist figure, in the high 30s to low 40s, underscoring the value of looking at averages rather than any one result.

The Race for Congress

The structural stakes are clear in both chambers. In the House, where 218 seats constitute a majority, Democrats need a net gain of only a handful of seats to take control, and most forecasters rate the chamber as genuinely competitive with a meaningful chance of flipping. Battleground tallies have identified roughly several dozen districts as truly in play, split closely between the two parties, which is why even modest national shifts can prove decisive.

The Senate map is more favorable to Republicans because of which seats are up. The chamber currently sits at 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats, and Democrats would need a net gain of four seats to win a majority. Reporting has highlighted a handful of marquee contests:

  • Maine and North Carolina: often cited as Democrats' clearest pickup opportunities.
  • Ohio: a closely watched race after former Senator Sherrod Brown entered the contest against appointed Senator Jon Husted.
  • Georgia: Senator Jon Ossoff's re-election is a top Republican target.
  • Michigan: an open seat following Senator Gary Peters's retirement.

The generic congressional ballot, which asks voters which party they prefer without naming candidates, has shown Democrats with a mid-single-digit to high-single-digit edge in averages this spring. That measure is an early indicator rather than a forecast, and it typically narrows or widens as campaigns engage and nominees are set.

Issues to Watch Through the Summer

Several threads will shape whether the June snapshot hardens or fades. The trajectory of prices, particularly fuel and food, is the most direct line to the economic-approval number that fell so sharply. Decisions by the Federal Reserve on interest rates could ease or prolong the squeeze on borrowing. The path of tariff policy and any response from trading partners may feed into both prices and business sentiment. Monthly jobs reports will indicate whether the labor market holds its footing.

Politically, the durability of Republican erosion matters most. The 22 percent of Republicans expressing economic disapproval is notable precisely because base unity is what usually cushions a president in a difficult cycle. Whether that figure grows, stabilizes or reverses by the fall will signal a great deal. So will the behavior of independents, who in this poll lean heavily disapproving and who tend to swing the most competitive seats.

Reading the Numbers With Care

A few cautions apply to any single survey. The Marist poll's margin of error means the topline figures should be read as ranges rather than exact points, and subgroup numbers carry wider margins still. Approval can move with news events and can recover as well as decline; presidential numbers have rebounded in past cycles after summer lows. And national approval does not map evenly onto individual races, each of which turns on local candidates and conditions.

What the June 2026 NPR/PBS News/Marist poll establishes is a clear and consistent picture at one moment: a president at a personal low, an economy rated more harshly than at any prior point in his tenure, and a midterm environment that history associates with losses for the party in power. Whether that picture holds is the central question of the months ahead, and it will be answered by prices, policy and voters rather than by polling alone.

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